50,000 Secular Draft Dodgers Walk Free — But the State Targets Bnei Torah
Israel’s military leaders warn of a “manpower crisis,” insisting that the IDF urgently needs 10,000 more soldiers to fill its ranks. The solution, we are told, is to break down the doors of yeshivos and drag lomdei Torah into prison. But when we look at the facts, a different picture emerges—one the State doesn’t want to admit.
The Numbers They Ignore
Every year, around 60,000–75,000 Jewish men reach draft age. Among secular Israelis, 20–25% never enlist.[1] That equals 7,000–10,000 men annually avoiding the army.
Over the full draft-age window of 18–26, this adds up to a pool of 50,000–70,000 secular men right now who are eligible to serve, on paper, but never did.[2]
That’s five to seven times more than the army claims it needs.
How They Avoid Service
- Medical/Psychological exemptions: skyrocketed from ~2,000 in 2020 to nearly 9,000 by 2023, with even military officials acknowledging that many are falsified via private doctors and lawyers.[3]
- Criminal records / living abroad: thousands of men annually escape the draft through these routes.
- Administrative write-offs: every year, more files are quietly closed without follow-up.
An IDF manpower officer admitted privately:
“If we wanted to close the gap, we could do it tomorrow. The files are there. But it’s easier politically to shout about ‘universal service’ than to arrest secular 20-year-olds in Tel Aviv.”
The Double Standard
If this was really about soldiers, the IDF would already have them. Tens of thousands of draft dodgers exist in plain sight. Yet the State chooses not to enforce against them. Why?
- Politics: Secular dodgers are dispersed individuals. Yeshiva students are a bloc—and a convenient political target.
- Optics: Hauling a young secular man out of his Tel Aviv apartment sparks outrage. Hauling a bochur out of a beis midrash generates applause in the media.
- Narrative: The myth of the “shared burden” collapses once people realize that secular draft-dodging is greater in raw numbers.
The Truth Behind the Campaign
The math is simple: the State already has five to seven times the manpower it claims to need among secular draft dodgers. Yet instead of enforcing existing laws, it chooses to vilify the Torah world.
This proves what Gedolei Yisrael have warned all along: this was never about soldiers. It was always about silencing Torah.
Sources & Footnotes
- IDF Manpower Report, 2020–2021: ~31–33% of all eligible recruits did not enlist; among men outside the Charedi system, ~20–25%.
- Knesset Research Center, “Military Service Rates,” 2023.
- Haaretz, Jan. 2023: IDF confirms rise from ~2,000 to ~9,000 mental health exemptions between 2020–2023.